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Prediction for CME (2013-04-11T07:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-04-11T07:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/154/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-04-13T22:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Dst min. in nT: -11
Dst min. time: 2013-04-15T03:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-04-14T02:40Z (-2.0h, +2.0h)
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

(Arrival Prediction by Manuela Temmer submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
On Apr 11, 2013, at 12:22 PM, Manuela Temmer wrote:
Results by using the DBM (http://oh.geof.unizg.hr/DBM/dbm.php)
Input parameters:
CME take-off date & time: April 11, 2013 at 10h:55min
R0=15 Rs, v0=660 km/s, ?=0.2×10-7 km-1, w=450 km/s, Rt=1 AU.
CME arrival at target (date & time): April 14, 2013 at 02h:40min [+/-2h]
Impact speed at target (at 1 AU): 550 km/s [+/-50 km/s]
Regards,
Manuela

Lead Time: 53.83 hour(s)
Difference: -4.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-04-11T16:22Z

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